A recent article from BoxOffice.com, dated 3/12/11, projected Water for Elephants box office figures that left me truly vexed.
60 million cumulative? Really? This didn’t seem right to me but I’m no statistician nor have I been studying box office numbers long enough to validate my disbelief. It’s a frustrating figure. I don’t like being frustrated.
I explored a previous post on the site and found some interesting information. Information that got me motivated.
From BoxOffice.com, dated 3/9/11, the article looked at weekend projections for 3/11-3/13. They made references to Facebook and Twitter throughout, but mainly Facebook. Follow me here and check out what they said (I bolded the key parts):
The latest alien invasion flick should have no problem trumping a modern take on a classic fairy tale and Disney’s new animated adventure at the box office this coming weekend.
Battle: Los Angeles is a prime example of how keeping a film’s marketing campaign intentionally vague can really pay off. The teaser for the Sony/Columbia release was nearly as successful as what the studio put together for District 9, and that alien-themed film went on to rake in a healthy $115.6 million domestically. While Battle: Los Angeles may have a tough time hitting that mark—District 9 had the advantage of being a summer release—it could end up pretty close. A #1 finish for Battle: Los Angeles will be quite an accomplishment considering that stars Aaron Eckhart and Michelle Rodriquez are far from reliable draws. It just goes to show that star power isn’t everything.
According to BoxOffice.com’s most recent WebWatch report, Battle: Los Angeles boasts a healthy 8.73% market share of online opinions among unreleased films. It’s second only to Water for Elephants.
Battle: Los Angeles is having a strong week on Facebook. The sci-fi extravaganza’s most active page has tacked on more than 7,000 new supporters since early Monday morning, pushing its total beyond 162,000. Most #1 openers add around 2,000 new supporters a day. On Twitter, Battle: Los Angeles is inspiring more tweets than The Book of Eli and Skyline.
Look for Battle: Los Angeles to rake in $30 million from around 3,000 locations during its debut frame.
Director Catherine Hardwicke brings a dark, foreboding tone to the classic tale of Red Riding Hood. Hardwicke is the director responsible for launching the Twilight franchise, so she certainly knows how to make a product that appeals to teens. Star Amanda Seyfried is building a strong following among twentysomethings, and that will help expand Red Riding Hood‘s audience. Yet Seyfried is still on her way up and she’s not quite a blockbuster draw yet. Letters to Juliet, her last starring role, opened to $13.5 million. Looks for Red Riding Hood to improve on that by a respectable margin.
According to WebWatch, Red Riding Hood boasts a 6.22% market share of online opinions among unreleased films. That puts it right behind Battle: Los Angeles.
On Facebook, Red Riding Hood has a weak following for a film that will skew heavily female. The Warner Bros. release’s most active page only has more than 53,000 supporters—Letters to Juliet had more than 200,000 at the same point before release. Twitter activity isn’t very reassuring either considering that Red Riding Hood trails the likes of The Last Song and The Roommate.
Expect Red Riding Hood to grab $16.5 million from around 2,900 locations during its opening weekend.
Mars Needs Moms will be hurt quite a bit by the fact that it’s opening just a week after Rango. While it could still eventually find more of an audience after Rango begins to subside, Disney should not expect a #1 debut.
On Twitter, Mars Needs Moms is trailing Rango and Gnomeo & Juliet by a substantial amount. It’s Facebook fan count of 27,000+ is also very weak. Rango had more than 216,000 fans on the Wednesday before hitting theaters.
Look for Mars Needs Moms to bring in a mediocre $13.5 million from 3,000 locations during its first weekend in theaters.
Click HERE to see the actual box office numbers from the weekend. Pretty accurate. BoxOffice.com regularly does Facebook analysis in their projections and how much fan support films have online. There is a relationship between these numbers and box office numbers.
They recently hit 18,000 “likes” and its growing. WFE fans already plan to break the bank on opening weekend but we get goodies as this number climbs so that’s further motivation. Just yesterday, we were treated to a high quality still for the Facebook page reaching 18,000 fans. The publicity directors behind the online campaign have been very communicative with fans these past weeks and work to keep us engaged.
We have less than 6 weeks until the movie comes out.
Make sure you “like” the official Facebook page and follow the official twitter @WaterElephants. Then, share their posts with your friends and retweet info to your followers. Tell people about the New York Times best-seller and loan your book. Get folks to tune in to Rob’s Leno and MTV interviews on Friday. Talk about the contests out there and get anybody you can to enter. Wear Team Rosie buttons or create your own flair to spread interest. Participate in the WFE community.
Help get those numbers climbing because this movie is spectacular and deserves a spectacular showing. “60 million cumulative” needs to be redlighted.